Think STEEP
A Simple Way to Explore the Future Impact of Any Major Development
To determine what any trend might mean and how much it could matter in the future, start by thinking about its possible implications across a broad spectrum of fields. Consider and ask:
> Society: demographics, family life, public health, religion. Will this development affect people? What about family structure? Will work life change?
> Technology: information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, chemistry and materials science, manufacturing. Does this development imply that a new technology will become available? Will it eclipse an existing technology? Will it increase the market for other technologies? How will R&D need to react?
> Economics: globalization of commerce and labor, poverty and the income gap, inflation, current fluctuations. Will this development change business as usual for most businesses? How will it affect the marketplace? What about governments—will they need to alter their fiscal policies? Will consumers act differently as a result? How will it affect the standard of living?
> Ecology: global warming, supplies of clean water, topsoil and agricultural systems, air quality. What are the implications for the natural systems that support us? Will this development reduce the toll of human activity? Or will it cause a new stress? Does this change represent the tipping point to make us see and do something about the damage being done to the ecosystem?
> Politics: international governing bodies, wars and regional conflicts, government regulations, new bills and laws, litigiousness. How will this development affect the system and practice of governance? Will it alter election dynamics? Will it change the type of leadership? Will new groups begin to exert force on the government?
Adapted from FUTURE, INC.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What’s Next by Eric Garland (AMACOM, Hardcover).
To determine what any trend might mean and how much it could matter in the future, start by thinking about its possible implications across a broad spectrum of fields. Consider and ask:
> Society: demographics, family life, public health, religion. Will this development affect people? What about family structure? Will work life change?
> Technology: information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, chemistry and materials science, manufacturing. Does this development imply that a new technology will become available? Will it eclipse an existing technology? Will it increase the market for other technologies? How will R&D need to react?
> Economics: globalization of commerce and labor, poverty and the income gap, inflation, current fluctuations. Will this development change business as usual for most businesses? How will it affect the marketplace? What about governments—will they need to alter their fiscal policies? Will consumers act differently as a result? How will it affect the standard of living?
> Ecology: global warming, supplies of clean water, topsoil and agricultural systems, air quality. What are the implications for the natural systems that support us? Will this development reduce the toll of human activity? Or will it cause a new stress? Does this change represent the tipping point to make us see and do something about the damage being done to the ecosystem?
> Politics: international governing bodies, wars and regional conflicts, government regulations, new bills and laws, litigiousness. How will this development affect the system and practice of governance? Will it alter election dynamics? Will it change the type of leadership? Will new groups begin to exert force on the government?
Adapted from FUTURE, INC.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What’s Next by Eric Garland (AMACOM, Hardcover).
posted by AcrosticGuy at 4:14 PM
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